Again, the US and Israel shamelessly violate the international ban on aggression by launching illegal attacks on the criminal Iranian regime. Again, Beijing is a bystander—though again of events that, in Xi Jinping’s eyes, should only further demonstrate the China-friendly laws of this Moment in history.
Given the Middle East’s strategic importance and the greater intensity of this conflict, Beijing might have to do more than passively exploit the propaganda opportunities, as it did following the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela. A Chinese partner has been weakened. The vulnerability of vital sea routes has been illustrated. Moreover, the conflict is only getting more complicated.
So far, Beijing’s response is limited to rhetorical condemnation and citizen evacuation. Tellingly, the official Chinese three-point position was published as a readout of a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Russian counterpart Lavrov. Indications of greater Chinese exertion will be deduced from, among other things, Beijing’s reaction to a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and whether Trump’s planned visit to Beijing will go ahead.
There are reasons to intervene. Iran is more of a Chinese partner than distant Venezuela. Economic interaction is greater and my diplomatic visits database shows frequent visits since the start of the Xi era. Wanna-be great power China’s clear lack of influence on the situation is painful. Iran holds a significant position in loose global collective of anti-democratic countries. Energy supplies from Iran are not insignificant. The Chinese economy depends on now-disturbed global trade flows through the Persian Gulf and the also-affected Suez Channel. Petrostate Russia may gloat about rising oil prices, but with Iran Moscow is losing a partner in its war against Ukraine.
Yet, Beijing is more likely to stay on the sidelines. China does not offer partners active military support. The reckless Iranian attacks on neighbouring countries complicate Beijing’s diplomatic position in the Middle East. China has invested significantly in its ties with Saudi Arabia. A recent first trilateral summit between Asean, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and China was proof of Beijing’s aspirations for the region. Moreover, Sino-Iranian economic ties are not as deep as public pronouncements suggest.
Passivity pays because, when all is said and done, the developments strengthen China’s global position more than they weaken it. The US and Israel are rapidly expending large quantities of sophisticated ammunition attacking Iran and defending from Iranian counter-attacks. It is ironic, then, that US Under Secretary of Defence Elbridge Colby claimed precisely these limited stockpiles could not go to Ukraine, because they were needed for a potential conflict over Taiwan. While the elimination of Iran does not directly affect China’s core interests in its immediate neighbourhood, this massive attention sink for Washington does weaken the US position in East Asia, churning through military stocks that are hard to replenish quickly.
Above all it matters that Trump and Netanyahu continue their demolition of the international order. This development is not only harmful for Europe because it threatens Greenland and aids Xi Jinping’s propaganda. The inability of European leaders to explicitly acknowledge the illegality of the American and Israeli actions demonstrates to every country how weak the so-called ‘rules-based international order’ actually is—a realisation that strengthens adventurous superpowers against all other states.
Europe is also directly affected by renewed instability in its neighbourhood and the potential return of massive refugee flows. The fact that Trump undermines the US constitutional system domestically with this illegal arrogation of war powers further weakens the democratic camp. The joy many Iranians feel over tyrant Khamenei’s demise is understandable. Europeans too have few happy memories of the supporter of Putin and Assad. However, the context is disastrous for the free world.
Many Europeans were shocked when – departing Moscow after his first post-invasion visit – Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin that ‘when we are together, we drive’ the changes unseen in a century (百年未有之大变局 bǎinián wèi yǒu zhī dà biànjú). These changes are still frequently referred to as Beijing prepares its next five-year plan in the middle of trade war and ‘global turbulence’. America’s chaotic attacks against Iran and Venezuela are this ‘turbulence’ midwifing a new world.
What Xi means with the epochal change, is a global power transition as the contradiction between a rising Global South of developing countries under Chinese leadership and a declining Western dominance under US hegemony comes to a head. A good maoist knows that contradictions always intensify when they come closer to their resolution. And—to mash up a few more maoist metaphors—one should not be afraid of the heat when struggling for revolutions that are never dinner parties. So far, in Xi Jinping’s eyes, the chaos in the superstructure should only confirm the foundational shifts caused by China’s rise.
Chinese leaders should beware the fallibility of human-devised ‘laws’ that purport to explain the world in definite terms. Yet, until Beijing’s laws fail in ways obvious to Xi himself, European leaders do well to focus on the greater picture as it unfolds before Chinese eyes right now.
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