Xi Jinping’s changing dominance seen through diplomatic patterns

Since Xi Jinping has begun his third term, much has been written about him delegating more responsibilities to a new crop of trusted subordinates, both domestically and abroad. This is an important development in a tenure that has seen big political shifts in China. It therefore pays to delve into what is different about Xi by considering one of the President’s most important representational roles: that of diplomat.

Over the past years, I have manually built a database of Chinese diplomatic traffic based on the Chinese foreign ministry (MFA)’s online Diplomatic Schedule (外事日程), in part relaying on the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine. My spreadsheet limits itself to all trips related to events listed on that schedule. For consistency’s sake, the analysis below limits itself to visits of ministerial level and above.

The analysis that follows was inspired by two discussions. The first is the suggestion by the editor and reviewers at ISEAS’s Fulcrum to delve more deeply into Xi’s role in ‘peripheral diplomacy’, for a short piece on Southeast Asia. The second was in reply to my all-too-hasty Substack note, which reminded me to stress the political context when discussing changes between PMs Li Keqiang and Li Qiang.

Summary:

  • Xi Jinping’s absolute diplomatic role peaked in his first term. His relative weight began when, as Vice President, he neared President Hu going out, and Xi overshadowed his Premier his first and second terms.
  • Xi’s personal focus is apparent in growing activity in China’s neighbouring regions at the cost of relative or absolute decline elsewhere. In the other direction, he also took a bigger role hosting the Bo’ao Forum in his first two terms.
  • In his third term, Xi again takes it a bit easier and the late-Hu pattern re-establishes itself. The second term diminution of Vice Premiers’ diplomatic role also reverses itself. Xi continues to lead the ranking of domestic hosts by doing much more than his predecessor, a relative position Hu furthermore only reached in his second term but Xi has always held.
  • Premier Li Qiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi have a qualitatively greater role compared to predecessors. The were the first of their ranks to have been trusted to represent China at the G20 and BRICS Summits.

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Everywhere you look, one clear trend stands out: Xi Jinping took on a greater role in diplomacy in absolute and relative terms at the start of his presidency. Already as Vice President, Xi was almost as active as President Hu Jintao. In Xi’s first term, there is a substantial increase in visits of leaders from and to China. In both Xi’s first and second terms, Xi Jinping takes on a bigger relative role. However, in the political new reality of Xi’s third term, he takes a step back again and the late-Hu external role division becomes visible again.

Outgoing visits from China announced by PRC MFA of ministerial level or higher (2003–2025.11).
Incoming visits to China announced by PRC MFA of ministerial level or higher (2003–2025.11).

Xi Jinping’s personal attention to diplomacy

Heir apparent Xi Jinping became Vice President in March of 2008. His independence from President Hu Jintao was already noted around his much-discussed meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2009. The data also shows how active he already was.

During Hu’s second term, the top outgoing persons was the predictable line-up of Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi (114), Premier Wen Jiabao (62), and President Hu Jintao (49). However, Vice President Xi came a close 4th with 41 trips. We have to wait for Xi’s on-going third term to see the Vice President, Han Zheng, come this close again (17 vs 20), albeit provisionally.

The various initiatives that Xi launched shortly after becoming President included two relevant to diplomatic work. Xi Jinping’s Thought on Diplomacy provides in a guiding role for the General Secretary. In 2013, Xi organised the first ever Central Peripheral Diplomacy Work Conference, which directed more attention to China’s neighbourhood to secure the rising power’s position. The table of Bo’ao Forum for Asia events at the bottom of this post shows Xi took the keynote half the time his first two terms, exceeding Hu. He has not used that podium after 2022.

Xi Jinping (2013–2025.11)total Southeast Asia18
total Europe40
total Africa11
total Middle East6
total Central Asia16
total East Asia3
total South Asia8
total EU22
Hu Jintao (2003–2013)total Southeast Asia9
total Europe32
total Africa17
total Middle East3
total Central Asia14
total East Asia7
total South Asia3
total EU18
Total of trips undertaken to various regions by Xi and Hu as President.

Overall data already shows his focus. Compared to Hu in his 2 terms, Xi in his 2.5 terms so far has been on a similar number of trips to the EU and has visited Africa less. Instead, Xi doubled the number of trips to Southeast Asia and South Asia. Central Asia remains constant but was high already. East Asia is affected by the unique relations with Japan and both Koreas.

Looking at a more granular level, the general pattern in Xi’s role is clear. His special attention for Southeast Asia was clear during his time as Vice President already. In Central Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, the President becomes the second most frequent visitor after the State Councillor/Foreign Minister. As we will now discuss in more detail, in Xi’s third term the President goes back to the position more common under late Hu Jintao.

Outgoing visits from China to various neighbouring regions under Hu Jintao (2003–2013).
Outgoing visits from China to various neighbouring regions under Xi Jinping (2013–2025.11).

Return to delegation in Xi’s third term

Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang were often described as factional rivals. In any case, Xi Jinping was engaged in a campaign to centralise political control in his person from the moment he took office as General Secretary in late 2012. The diplomatic patterns show a President in command diplomatically as well.

Hu JintaoWen Jiabao
20126201220
2011720119
201010201018
200916200910
20081020085
20071520078
200611200615
200511200511
200412200412
2003720036
Xi JinpingPremier
2025.1162025.1112
202410202413
20234Li Qiang20235
2022520221
2021020210
2020120200
20191120195
20181320189
2017820178
201616201610
201516201512
201422201416
201315Li Keqiang20139

However, in the third term we see a return to the late-Hu era pattern. Once again, the State Councillor/Foreign Minister is followed by the Prime Minister as most frequent traveller and only then the President. It appears that Xi does dare to delegate more diplomatic responsibilities to Li Qiang.

Hu Jintao led the same number or more overseas trips than Wen Jiabao until 2009. Then a substantial gap arose. At the same time, as discussed, Vice President Xi neared Hu’s totals as well. However, the entire tenure of Li Keqiang the Premier did not travel more than the President.

The question thus arises if Li Keqiang was an unusually weak Prime Minister. Hu’s pattern makes clear that a diplomatically more active President at the start of his term is not unusual. However, Wen eventually got to lead more trips. Li Keqiang never did and only got to address UNGA once as opposed to Wen’s twice.

Wen JiabaoLi KeqiangLi QiangHu JintaoXi Jinping
outgoing1147030105127
incoming22516973304563

Li Qiang is unusual in starting his tenure as Premier later than his President. He gets a high-profile diplomatic role straight out of the gate. Another thing unusual fact, is that Xi trusts him to represent China at major conferences previously only attended by the President himself. Li Qiang represented China at the G20 in 2023 (India) and 2025 (South Africa) and BRICS in 2025 (Brazil). Wang Yi got to represent China at the G20 in 2021 (Italy), but that was when Xi did not travel because of the pandemic.

The more ‘Western’ G20 is perhaps less important than Global South-oriented Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. The SCO has its strict rhythm of separate summits for heads of state, heads of government, and foreign ministers. That rhythm continues, so does not need to be spelled out here with even more tables. However, the most recent BRICS Summit is interesting. One can speculate that Xi had seen Lula often enough that year already or that BRICS belongs to the economic territory that was traditionally the responsibility of the Premier.

hosts in Hu’s 1st term
Li Zhaoxing144
Wen Jiabao120
Hu Jintao115
Yang Jiechi28
Tang Jiaxuan13
hosts in Hu’s 2nd term
Hu Jintao189
Yang Jiechi168
Wen Jiabao105
Dai Bingguo13
hosts ≠ meets
hosts in Xi’s 1st term
Xi Jinping220
Wang Yi179
Li Keqiang127
Yang Jiechi28
hosts in Xi’s 2nd term
Xi Jinping175
Wang Yi137
Li Keqiang42
Yang Jiechi4
Qin Gang1
hosts in Xi’s 3rd term
Xi Jinping168
Wang Yi157
Li Qiang73
Qin Gang19
hosts ≠ meets

Looking at the admittedly rough data for officials serving as the main host for incoming delegations, we see a massive increase in receptions under Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping dominates every single term. Yet, whereas Hu Jintao starts his period in office lower in the rankings than his Premier and Foreign Minister, Hu also resumes dominance in his second term. Premier Li Keqiang’s total in the non-pandemic first term is similar to those of Wen and Li Qiang. Wang Yi maintains an impressively busy agenda, but so did his predecessors. The big difference appears to be that Xi does a lot more additional receptions in absolute numbers too.

Looking at both incoming and outgoing data, the role of the Vice Premiers shrank to noticeably small proportions in Xi’s second term. In his third term so far, however, they seem to reappear in the rankings in the usual numbers again. Ding Xuexiang especially stands out, Liu Guozhong less.

namerankdatecountryforum
Li QiangPrime Minister21/11/2025South Africa20th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident17/11/2024Brazil19th G20 Summit
Li QiangPrime Minister09/09/2023India18th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident14/11/2022Indonesia17th G20 Summit
Wang YiState Councillor FA29/10/2021Italy16th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident21/11/2020Saudi Arabia (online)15th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident27/06/2019Japan14th G20 Summit; BRICS Leaders’ Meeting
Xi JinpingPresident29/11/2018Argentina13th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident04/07/2017Germany12th G20 summit; BRICS Informal Summit
Xi JinpingPresident04/09/2016China11th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident14/11/2015Turkey10th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident14/11/2014Australia9th G20 Summit
Xi JinpingPresident04/09/2013Russia8th G20 Summit; BRICS Informal Summit
Hu JintaoPresident16/06/2012Mexico7th G20 Summit
Hu JintaoPresident02/11/2011France6th G20 Summit
Hu JintaoPresident11/11/2010South Korea5th G20 Summit
Hu JintaoPresident23/06/2010Canada4th G20 Summit
Hu JintaoPresident24/09/2009United States of America3rd G20 Summit
Hu JintaoPresident01/04/2009United Kingdom2nd G20 Summit
Hu JintaoPresident14/11/2008United States of America1st G20 Summit
List of all G20 Summits.
namerankdatecountryforum
Li QiangPrime Minister05/07/2025Brazil17th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident22/10/2024Russia16th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident21/08/2023South Africa15th BRICS Summit; China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue
Xi JinpingPresident23/06/2022China (online)14th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident09/09/2021India (online)13th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident17/11/2020Russia (online)12th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident12/11/2019Brazil11th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident23/07/2018South Africa10th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident03/09/2017China9th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident15/10/2016India8th BRICS Summit
Xi JinpingPresident08/07/2015Russia7th BRICS Summit; SCO Heads of State Meeting
Xi JinpingPresident14/07/2014Brazil6th BRICS Summit; China-LAC Countries Leaders’ Meeting
Xi JinpingPresident25/03/2013South Africa5th BRICS Summit
Hu JintaoPresident28/03/2012India4th BRICS Summit
Hu JintaoPresident14/04/2011China3rd BRICS Summit
Hu JintaoPresident14/04/2010Brazil2nd BRICS Summit
Hu JintaoPresident14/06/2009Russia1st BRICS Summit; SCO Heads of State Meeting
List of all BRICS Summits.
namerankdateforum
Li QiangPrime Minister22/09/202580th UN General Assembly
Wang YiForeign Minister22/09/202479th UN General Assembly; UN Summit of the Future; BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting; G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
Han ZhengVice President18/09/202378th UN General Assembly
Wang YiState Councillor FA18/09/202277th UN General Assembly; BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting; CELAC; GCC; UNSG
Xi JinpingPresident21/09/202176th UN General Assembly (online)
Wang YiState Councillor FA03/12/2020UN General Assembly Special Session in Response to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic (online)
Wang YiState Councillor FA23/09/201974th UN General Assembly; UN Climate Action Summit
Wang YiState Councillor FA28/09/201873rd UN General Assembly
Wang YiForeign Minister21/09/201772nd UN General Assembly
Li KeqiangPrime Minister18/09/201671st UN General Assembly
Xi JinpingPresident26/09/201570th UN General Assembly; 70th Anniversary of the UN
Wang YiForeign Minister24/09/201469th UN General Assembly
Wang YiForeign Minister22/09/201368th UN General Assembly
Yang JiechiForeign Minister27/09/201267th UN General Assembly
Yang JiechiForeign Minister21/09/201166th UN General Assembly
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister21/09/201065th UN General Assembly; UN High-level Meeting on the Millennium Development Goals
Hu JintaoPresident22/09/200964th UN General Assembly; UN Climate Conference
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister23/09/200863rd UN General Assembly; UN High-level Meeting on the Millennium Development Goals
Yang JiechiForeign Minister19/09/200762nd UN General Assembly; China-Africa Foreign Ministers’ Political Consultations
Li ZhaoxingForeign Minister17/09/200661st UN General Assembly
Li ZhaoxingForeign Minister18/09/200560th UN General Assembly
Li ZhaoxingForeign Minister26/09/200459th UN General Assembly
Li ZhaoxingForeign Minister24/09/200358th UN General Assembly
A list of all UN General Assembly gatherings.
namerankdatecountryforum
Li QiangPrime Minister27/10/2025Malaysia28th China-ASEAN Summit; 28th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 20th East Asia Summit; 5th Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Leaders’ Meeting
Li QiangPrime Minister09/10/2024Laos27th China-ASEAN Summit; 27th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 19th East Asia Summit
Li QiangPrime Minister05/09/2023Indonesia26th China-ASEAN Summit; 26th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 18th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister08/11/2022Cambodia25th China-ASEAN Summit; 25th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 17th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister26/10/2021Brunei (online)24th China-ASEAN Summit; 24th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 16th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister12/11/2020Vietnam (online)23rd China-ASEAN Summit; 23rd ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 15th East Asia Summit; 4th RCEP Summit; ABIS
Li KeqiangPrime Minister02/11/2019Thailand22th China-ASEAN Summit; 22th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 14th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister12/11/2018Singapore21st China-ASEAN Summit; 21st ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 13th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister12/11/2017Philippines20th China-ASEAN Summit; 20th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 12th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister06/09/2016Laos19th China-ASEAN Summit; 19th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 11th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister20/11/2015Malaysia18th China-ASEAN Summit; 18th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 10th East Asia Summit
Li KeqiangPrime Minister12/11/2014Myanmar17th China-ASEAN 10+1, 17th China-Japan-SouthKorea-ASEAN 10+3
Li KeqiangPrime Minister09/10/2013Brunei16th China-ASEAN Summit; 16th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 8th East Asia Summit
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister18/11/2012Cambodia15th China-ASEAN Summit; 15th ASEAN Plus Three Anniversary Summit; 7th East Asia Summit
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister17/11/2011Indonesia14th China-ASEAN Summit; 14th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 6th East Asia Summit
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister28/10/2010Vietnam13th China-ASEAN Summit; 13th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 5th East Asia Summit; China-Japan-ROK Leaders’ Meeting
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister23/10/2009Thailand12h China-ASEAN Summit; 12th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 4th East Asia Summit
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister18/11/2007Singapore11th China-ASEAN Summit; 11th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 3rd East Asia Summit; 8th China-Japan-ROK Summit
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister13/01/2007Philippines10th China-ASEAN Summit; 10h ASEAN Plus Three Summit; 2nd East Asia Summit; 7th China-Japan-ROK Summit
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister12/12/2005Malaysia9th China-ASEAN Summit; 9th ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea Leaders’ Meeting; 1st East Asia Summit (EAS)
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister28/11/2004Laos8th China-ASEAN Summit; 8th ASEAN-China-Japan-ROK Leaders’ Meeting; 6th China-Japan-ROK Leaders’ Meeting
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister07/10/2003Indonesia7th China-ASEAN Summit; 7th ASEAN-China-Japan-ROK (10+3) Leaders’ Meeting; 5th China-Japan-ROK Leaders’ Meeting; 1st ASEAN Business and Investment Summit
Wen JiabaoPrime Minister29/04/2003ThailandChina-ASEAN Leaders’ Special Meeting on SARS
Zhu RongjiPrime Minister04/11/2002Cambodia6th China-ASEAN Summit
Zhu RongjiPrime Minister06/11/2001Brunei5th China-ASEAN Summit
Zhu RongjiPrime Minister25/11/2000Singapore4th China-ASEAN Summit
Zhu RongjiPrime Minister28/11/1999Philippines3rd China-ASEAN Summit
Hu JintaoVice President16/12/1998Vietnam2nd China-ASEAN Summit
Jiang ZeminPresident14/12/1997Malaysia1st China-ASEAN Summit; ASEAN-China-Japan-ROK (10+3) Leaders’ Meeting
List of all China-ASEAN Summits.
yearmain speakerrank
2002Zhu RongjiPremier《携手共创新世纪新亚洲美好未来》
2003Wen JiabaoPremier《把握机遇迎接挑战实现共赢》
2004Hu JintaoPresident《中国的发展 亚洲的机遇》
2005Jia QinglinCPCCC Chair《推进全面合作 共建和谐繁荣的亚洲》
2006Zeng QinghongVice President《把握亚洲新的机会共创世界美好未来》
2007Wu BangguoNPC SC Chair《开创亚洲和平合作和谐新局面》
2008Hu JintaoPresident《坚持改革开放 推进合作共赢》
2009Wen JiabaoPremier《凝聚共识,促进亚洲健康可持续发展》
2010Xi JinpingVice President《携手推进亚洲绿色发展和可持续发展》
2011Hu JintaoPresident《推动共同发展共建和谐亚洲》
2012Li KeqiangVice Premier《凝聚共识,促进亚洲健康可持续发展》
2013Xi JinpingPresident共同创造亚洲和世界的美好未来
2014Li KeqiangPremier《共同开创亚洲发展新未来》
2015Xi JinpingPresident《迈向命运共同体 开创亚洲新未来》
2016Li KeqiangPremier共绘充满活力的亚洲新愿景
2017Zhang GaoliVice Premier携手推进经济全球化 共同开创亚洲和世界美好未来
2018Xi JinpingPresident开放共创繁荣 创新引领未来
2019Li KeqiangPremier《携手应对挑战 实现共同发展》
2020
2021Xi JinpingPresident《同舟共济克时艰,命运与共创未来》
2022Xi JinpingPresident《携手迎接挑战,合作开创未来》
2023Li KeqiangPremier《以人类命运共同体理念为引领 为世界和平与发展注入更多确定性》
2024Zhao LejiNPC SC Chair《团结协作,共迎挑战,携手开创亚洲和世界美好未来》
2025Ding XuexiangVice Premier共迎全球挑战 共建亚洲家园
List of all instances of the Bo’ao Forum for Asia.

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One response to “Xi Jinping’s changing dominance seen through diplomatic patterns

  1. […] I wrote about Xi Jinping’s travels. I once again use my database of diplomatic visits to and from China based on what the official […]

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