Blog
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Epochal European Council still misses opportunity to send a signal to China
The real shift had already happened before the European Council met to discuss China on Thursday 18 June. The careful public phrase ‘global macroeconomic imbalances’ concealed a relative unity among the EU leaders that Europe’s economy faced a Chinese challenge. The member states approved what had already been expected: they handed the Commission a mandate to develop new instruments while keeping dialogue with Beijing going. Yet, although we should not discount what a shift this meeting represents, this European Council was also a missed opportunity to send a clear signal to both Beijing and the European public. The multiple readings…
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Sino-American strategic stability: Xi buys time from Trump
Like so many events in these days, the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump 14-15 May was highly clarifying of thew new geopolitical reality. Xi again managed to overwhelm Trump with the pomp and circumstance of his authoritarian state. The image of PLA soldiers goose-stepping past a row of American oligarchs at the airport nicely illustrated the current political reality of both sides. The summit’s outcome makes clear Beijing can live with this if it means it gets the respite of another period of strategic opportunity to work on China’s weaknesses and challenges. There were no major breakthroughs. The…
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US and Israel confirm Xi’s historical laws with Iran attack
Again, the US and Israel shamelessly violate the international ban on aggression by launching illegal attacks on the criminal Iranian regime. Again, Beijing is a bystander—though again of events that, in Xi Jinping’s eyes, should only further demonstrate the China-friendly laws of this Moment in history. Given the Middle East’s strategic importance and the greater intensity of this conflict, Beijing might have to do more than passively exploit the propaganda opportunities, as it did following the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela. A Chinese partner has been weakened. The vulnerability of vital sea routes has been illustrated. Moreover, the conflict…
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De echte China-factor in Europa’s belangen in Groenland
Trumps annexatiedrift richting Groenland is een nieuwe fase ingegaan. De aankondiging van invoerheffingen op tien Europese landen schudt mensen wakker. Het Amerikaanse beroep op een Chinese dreiging is niet serieus te nemen. De EU roept noodvergaderingen bijeen als reactie op het steeds openlijkere imperialisme van Trump en de MAGA-beweging, gevoed door de hebzucht van enkele miljardairs. In deze bange nieuwe wereld is het niet moeilijk om enig begrip te hebben voor de Canadese premier Carney op bezoek in Peking. Daar signaleerde de geharnaste voormalige bankier richting Washington dat zijn geplaagde land alternatieven heeft. Tegelijkertijd is er nog niks veranderd aan…
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Comparing French and German diplomatic visits to China
Just after French president Emmanuel Macron returns from his state visit to China, the German foreign minister Johann Wadephul will make his delayed visit to Beijing after all. This is as good an occasion as any to compare the two major powers in the European Union. Recently I wrote about Xi Jinping’s travels. I once again use my database of diplomatic visits to and from China based on what the official Foreign Ministry website lists on its Diplomatic Schedule (外事日程). In contrast to my Dutch post on the Netherlands, both countries have too many visits to list all. Summary:
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Xi Jinping’s changing dominance seen through diplomatic patterns
Since Xi Jinping has begun his third term, much has been written about him delegating more responsibilities to a new crop of trusted subordinates, both domestically and abroad. This is an important development in a tenure that has seen big political shifts in China. It therefore pays to delve into what is different about Xi by considering one of the President’s most important representational roles: that of diplomat. Over the past years, I have manually built a database of Chinese diplomatic traffic based on the Chinese foreign ministry (MFA)’s online Diplomatic Schedule (外事日程), in part relaying on the Internet Archive’s…
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EU must understand Xi is getting started with his own international community
This past week was filled with symbols from China suggesting a shifting world order. Sunday and Monday leaders gathered in Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting. Wednesday morning, the People’s Liberation Army marched across Tiananmen Square to commemorate the end of the Second World War. As the West is falling apart at the seams, Beijing’s message was one of confidence that the new world is China’s to shape. Both events represented the two components of official Chinese world views. The SCO summit promoted an illiberal approach to global governance. The military parade signalled Chinese nationalism. The countries in…
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Beijing’s Maoist ‘struggle’ and the Trade War
The US trade and tech wars with China have their ups and downs as Trump goes back and forth. China’s view of the game, though, is clear. Beijing is in it to win it. Observers raise questions what if any goals President Donald Trump has. Xi Jinping is engaged in a determined struggle. Long-established Maoist terms made their appearance early on in Trump’s second trade war. The Beijing Daily’s social media referred to the need to revisit Mao Zedong’s On Protracted War. Most importantly, in its April meeting, the CCP’s Politburo referred to the need to ‘coordinate domestic economic work…
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Selected bibliography of accusations against Huawei
A lot has been said and written about the risks of the Chinese telecommunications and surveillance company Huawei. This overview aims to provided a selection of credible articles. It separates direct accusations of espionage for the benefit of the Chinese state from articles on broader risks, company behaviour, and counter actions. State espionage Aglionby, John, Emily Feng, and Yuan Yang. 2018, January 29. ‘African Union Accuses China of Hacking Headquarters’. Financial Times. Fisher, Lucy and Michael Evans. 2019, April 20. ‘CIA warning over Huawei Telecoms giant accused of being funded by Chinese state security’. The Times. Joye, Christopher. 2013, July…
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Beijing appears to try including Taiwan ‘prudence’ in US-China trade negotiation language
Since Trump recklessly started a global trade war with his economically illiterate policies, understandably most attention has gone to tariffs and other trade measures. The US-China trade negotiations in Geneva and London make clear that both sides are hurting. It is not clear who will get ahead in the stand-off between Chinese export dependency and US reliance on rare earth imports. However, the curious appearance of Taiwan in Chinese material raises questions. After Donald Trump returned to the White House, some commentators worried that his simplistic world view and authoritarian sympathies would make him likely to seek grand bargains with…